The US Energy Information Association (EIA) forecasts that crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) will remain stable, with an average production of 1.80 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) in 2025 and 1.81mbbl/d in 2026.
The GOM’s natural gas production is also expected to remain significant, contributing around 13% of US crude oil production and 1% of US marketed natural gas production during this period.
According to the forecast, 13 new fields are expected to commence production in the GOM over the next two years.
The new fields are expected to add 85,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in 2025 and 308,000bpd in 2026, with associated natural gas production averaging 90 million cubic feet per day (mcf/d) in 2025 and 270mcf/d in 2026.
Three fields began production earlier this year, with Whale, Ballymore and Dover starting operations in January and April 2025.
The Whale field, in particular, is projected to produce approximately 85,000bpd of crude oil at its peak.
The second half of 2025 (H2 2025) will see additional fields coming online, including Shenandoah, Leon and Castile, and other subsea tiebacks to existing facilities.
The Shenandoah field is expected to start with an initial capacity of 120,000bpd, expanding to 140,000bpd in early 2026.
The Salamanca floating production unit, processing oil and gas from Leon and Castile, will have a capacity of 60,000bpd of oil and 40mcf/d of natural gas.
In 2026, three new subsea tiebacks are projected to begin production: Silvertip Phase 3, Longclaw and Monument, the latter being a subsea tieback to the Shenandoah FPU.
However, the development timeline for these fields could be disrupted by hurricanes, with Colorado State University predicting above-normal activity for the 2025 Atlantic Basin hurricane season.