At the current pace of development, Saudi Arabia is ‘not even close’ to reaching its 2023 renewable energy target of 27.3 GW under the country’s Saudi Arabia Vision 2030 according to analysts with GlobalData who believe the country is likely to experience a shortfall of 25.8 GW to the 2023 target.
Data and analytics firm GlobalData sees the county adding an average of 100 MW annually between 2010 and 2021. Going by this, the analysts see the 2030 target of 58.7 GW renewable energy capacity by 2030 ‘out of reach’ and a shortfall of 40.1 GW.
According to the Renewable Energy Statistics July 2022 of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Saudi Arabia’s cumulative installed renewable energy capacity at the end of 2021 was 443 MW to which solar PV contributed and estimated 389 MW.
Citing challenges in this regard, GlobalData points at the lack of continuity regarding policy and administrative direction, for instance the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (KA-CARE) is not the nodal agency anymore for renewable energy sector in the country after the government changed.
“The power sector in Saudi Arabia is facing numerous challenges when it comes to renewable power. Its issues range from low transparency to a lack of skilled human resources, an overarching bureaucracy, a high dependence on desalinated water, and low energy efficiency. Enforcement of contracts is also a concern,” explained GlobalData Power Analyst Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan. “Further, the country is known to be a difficult location in which to start a business, it has low levels of international trade, and there isn’t a robust insolvency resolution system in place.”
Among measures GlobalData suggests the country deals with is to ensure continuity of strong policies and their implementation, while also providing incentives for the growth of small scale renewable power. Simultaneously, processes and permits for the plants should be eased.
Projects need to be fast tracked ‘if they are to have a chance at meeting the 2030 target’.
The analysts also recommend the country to extend international partnerships for technology transfer to ensure efficient and reliable renewable energy network.
In June 2022, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research called Saudi Arabia the solar PV market to watch between 2022 and 2031. It expects the country to reach 5.65 GW solar PV capacity by 2031 while it targets 40 GW solar by 2030